Outlook remains good for Dutch hotel sector

The outlook for the Dutch hotel industry looks bright. Growth in hotel stays of around 4% is forecast for both this year and 2025. Demand for hotel stays in the Netherlands is also expected to remain high in subsequent years. At an annual growth rate of 3% in the period 2026 to 2030, there will be about 40 million hotel guests in the Netherlands by the end of 2030, a quarter more than in 2023. There is a chance that with sustained high demand, the hotel industry may eventually hit its limits in certain regions. The sector cannot avoid innovating and becoming more sustainable, both to be future-proof and to meet the future demands of hotel guests. This is according to ING Research in a research which was published today. 

The outlook for the Dutch hotel sector is positive. In both 2024 and 2025, the number of hotel stays is expected to increase by about 4% compared to the previous year. Due to a combination of higher wages and lower inflation, consumers have more money at their disposal. Moreover, despite higher prices, there is still a willingness to pay. Incidentally, this applies not only to Dutch, but also to European hotel guests. In addition, the business market is expected to show further recovery. 

It was initially expected that 2024 would be a weaker year in terms of travel than the peak year of 2023, but for now, there is continued growth. Spending on travel and accommodation, at home and abroad, was on average 12% higher over the first four months of 2024 than in the same period a year earlier, ING transaction data show. A sizeable part of the increase in holiday spending comes from higher prices. For instance, package holidays became 8% more expensive on average in the first four months of 2024, hotels in the Netherlands 6% and rates at bungalow parks and campsites in the Netherlands rose 9% in price on average.

Now that the hotel sector has recovered somewhat from the corona pandemic, there are several challenges that businesses need to work on in the coming years to stay future-proof. For instance, 43% of hotels still suffer from staff shortages. Therefore, the sector cannot escape the need to innovate, something hotels are certainly not at the forefront of. However, given the structural staff shortages, it is important that some of the work is automated. Think of digital check-in and the use of cleaning and clearing robots. More use can also be made of new technologies, such as generative AI, which, for example, can answer hotel guests' questions and specific hotel information in their own language. Ultimately, automation ensures greater efficiency, lower costs and fewer errors in operations.

The hospitality sector is also not a frontrunner when it comes to sustainability. Hotels in particular are a major burden on the environment: guests want clean towels every day, open windows and turn on the heating or air conditioning at the same time, and spend a long time in the shower. When it comes to sustainability, therefore, the hotel industry still has a lot of work to do. Most hotels are willing to take steps, provided that guest comfort does not suffer. The first measures to be taken are therefore mainly low-threshold ones, such as switching to green electricity, installing energy-efficient showerheads and electric charging stations, and no longer using mono-packaging at breakfast.

A recent new challenge concerns the increase in the low VAT rate of accommodation from 9% to 21%, as proposed in the new coalition's outline agreement. This will make hotel rooms and cottages at holiday parks, among others, 11% more expensive than at present from next year. Camping sites are excluded from this scheme. The price increase is expected to be borne almost entirely by the guest. To what extent this will hold them back is still hard to say. For most consumers, a hotel stay is a luxury product, which is more likely to be cut back on than on more essential goods and services, such as food and the hairdresser. At the same time, however, consumer spending power is increasing slightly in 2025, so the impact may not be as great. Even in the past two years, hotel guests did not let sharp price increases stop them.

As a travel destination, the Netherlands is becoming increasingly attractive, partly because of our climate with moderate temperatures, stable geopolitical environment and relatively high service levels. Consequently, in the future, more travellers are expected to come to the Netherlands, which will keep the demand for rooms high and further increase. At an annual growth rate of 3% from 2026 to 2030, there are expected to be around 40 million hotel guests in the Netherlands by the end of 2030, a quarter more than in 2023.

"There is a chance that with continued high demand, the hotel industry in the Netherlands will eventually hit its limits in certain regions, both in terms of room occupancy, room rates and staffing levels," says Sjuk Akkerman, Sector Banker Services & Leisure at ING. "In the coming years, as things stand, there won't be many more hotels in certain popular regions. Cities and provinces, such as Amsterdam, Maastricht and Zeeland, are becoming more reluctant to grant permits for new hotels."

Akkerman: "At the same time, structural staff shortages can put more and more pressure on service in hotels. Hotels therefore cannot avoid investing in innovation to partly solve the staff shortage. The hotel sector will also have to do more in the field of sustainability, not only because of regulations, but also to stay up-to-date as a hotel and to meet the future demands of hotel guests."